💡FAVORITE PERSONAL INSIGHTS
On Velocity vs Speed: One of the most important pillars of the startup culture, led by the success stories of Silicon Valley, is “speed”. The most well-known mantra is “move fast and break things”. As has happened with most of the management lessons from Steve Jobs’ life, people have either misunderstood the actual lessons or don’t take into consideration the wider context. Speed, experimentation and fast fail can be very useful for some startups, usually at product building stages, but they aren’t a panacea. Even worse, they conflate velocity with speed. In my experience, velocity is much harder to achieve but can bring success much faster. Two athletes may run equally fast but one of them heads towards the finish line (velocity) while the other to a cliff (speed). Being able to distinguish between the two is very important especially in non-ergodic environments. For example, Musk’s pace of product experimentation on Twitter is very fast (speed) but pretty random (lack of velocity) having already alienated millions of users who already move to other platforms (non-ergodic business competition).
On Action-First Worlds: Something I have been thinking about a lot lately is the balance between Active-Proactive-Reactive and how it shapes the world we live in. A useful analogy is: a) Active=Entrepreneur, b) Proactive=Thinker, c) Reactive=Politician/Regulator. With that in mind, for almost all emerging technologies (AGI, Crypto, Bioscience) you need a healthy balance of a+b BEFORE major innovations are released but that’s rarely achievable. One reason is misalignment of human incentives but philosophically a more important reason is because it’s extremely hard to test theoretical hypotheses. Hypotheses are not good at calculating infinite possibilities that only actions can generate. That became obvious to me while watching “We Are As Gods”, a documentary about Stewart Brand’s vision to bring back the mammoth. I believe that de-extinction has great risks but I also believe that it has much bigger upside. The same applies for AI, crypto, space exploration. We should always push for more “action” because teleologically this is the only way we can move forward. The golden balance would be to find a tested method to do “pre-mortems” that would actually accelerate innovation. Virtual environments could enable us launch pre-mortem worlds. Until then, we should become much smarter when it comes to regulation. Tomicah Tillemann’s framework is a good start on how to distinguish between punitive enforcement regulation and consultative rulemaking.
On Customer as a Partner (CaaP): Web3 (quantifiable & transparent accountability) & Metaverse (interoperability) will create non-zero-sum and "plastic" business environments where partnerships will make more sense than traditional transactional deals. Moreover, Web3 is (still) a very ideologically-driven space which means that founders/companies/VCs are evaluating things they wouldn't in the past when they assess the prospects of a partnership. We are witnessing a new kind of “product-market-ethos fit” paradigm where organizations will seek partnerships with philosophically aligned and product-extension partners to successfully navigate the space. Protocol-led growth is a great use case.
On Combinatorial Thinking: A few years ago, the intellectual elites were debating about the merits of specialization vs generalization. Regardless of where you stand in this spectrum, it’s pretty evident now that this debate wasn’t the right one. It’s not about how much you know (vertical or horizontal) but whether you can creatively combine insights from various fields and generate new knowledge and findings. In my experience, I see that the need for individuals with “combinatorial thinking” is very big both in traditional organizations and creative industries. The early signs of this phenomenon were the professions of creative technologists, multimedia artists and computational biologists but we will soon witness many more such examples. AGI will accelerate this. 1+1=3
On Predictions & Overconfidence: 2022 was the year that I decided to go full into Web3, during a bear market. As I look back to my decision and after having gained some solid insights and experience in the space, I am trying to assess (as unbiased as possible) the mental models I used to reach to this decision and the models that currently shape my thinking. My conclusion is that low-info heuristics, like for example “this is a bear market with high inflation so I wont have high job security”, are useful guides to start exploring a situation but not good enough to lead you to transformational career/life decisions. Most important things in life have a distribution of outcomes where the best possible choices are outliers that are dramatically better than the typical ones. Unfortunately, low-info heuristics tell you that outliers can’t exist. In my case, the decision to move to Web3 seemed irrational but I have already professionally grown 10x vs if I stayed to my previous role. Don’t be afraid to try ambitious things where the downside of failing is low, and the upside of succeeding is high!
On Umwelt vs Culture: Umwelt is the biological foundations that lie at the very epicenter of the study of both communication and signification in human and non-human animals. The term is usually translated as "self-centered world". I came across the term reading Ed Yong’s “An Immense World” and I was fascinated by reading how organisms can live in the same environment but have completely different umwelts but also by the phenomenon of "collective umwelt" which models the organism as a centralized system from the cellular level upward. This requires the semiosis of any one part to be continuously connected to any other semiosis operating within the same organism. If anything disrupts this process, the organism will not operate efficiently. Comparing the theory of “umwelt” with this of “company culture”, it’s evident that Umwelt fits much better to the dynamism and pluralism of today’s organizations and industries. The post-Covid era is an era of extreme business plasticity so we need to push for new paradigms that can address current challenges and opportunities the same way we have evolved our thinking about WFH policies.
🧑💻 THINGS THAT EXCITE ME
Decentralized Science: Today, most science is conducted at centralized institutions with a high barrier to entry. Research is built on data that routinely isn't shared, affecting our ability to replicate science. Further, incentives - grants, funding, publications, impact factor - have a profound effect on the science and its quality, often to its detriment. IP-NFTs and Research DAOs are very encouraging use cases on how we can “open” science to everyone and accelerate progress and innovation.
Decentralized Physical Infrastructure: Most human-led networks are structured upon three basic concepts: governance, alignment and incentives. Blockchain technologies can harmonically bridge these concepts and add transparency on top. This means that physical infra industries (telco, manufacturing, energy, IoT) are up for disruption. For instance, power grids are dated, centralized, and face several other issues like high upfront capital expenditures and misaligned incentives. There are great opportunities to build microgrids and storage and transmissions networks, by solving issues such as high capital expenditures and disparate incentives solved through tokens. Bonus: WeatherXM is a greek startup that will be a top player in the space soon.
Generative AI + X: There have already been numerous articles (Ben Thompson’s is still one of the best) on the magic of generative AI , Chat GPT, Dalle-2 etc. I am still in awe of the ripple effect generative AI could have to our society in multiple fronts ranging from biomedicine to creativity and I can’t wait to see what GPT-4 will look like. Till then, I believe very few people have explored the potential of combining Generative AI with other emerging technologies. For example, blockchain technologies could help us build a layer of “personhood” on top of online content enabling to distinguish what is written by humans vs machines. Another use case could be Generative AI + 3D Printing. This is an illustrative thread scratching the surface. Bonus: Microsoft’s positioning in the emerging field of Generative AI + Search + Gaming makes me very happy and excited about the future. Cowen’s post is an example.
Vaccines against all influenza viruses: In November, an experimental flu vaccine was found to induce a protective immune response against all known types of flu in animals. This breakthrough, which uses mRNA technology, wouldn’t prevent all flu infections. But it would raise patients’ level of immune protection, blunting the harm from seasonal flus and assuaging scientists’ fears that the next global pandemic could be an influenza strain with higher mortality than COVID. The influenza virus family is extensive, with at least 20 identified lineages. Current influenza vaccines provide exceptionally narrow protection. But universal influenza vaccines would prep our immune systems for every lineage.
Longevity Research: Age-related changes and illnesses have been associated with genetics, the proteome, diet and even gut bacteria. Longevity research focuses on understanding the biological processes behind how we age, with the aim of delaying or preventing age-related disease. Over the past ten years, annual investment figures in longevity boosting technologies have grown from pretty much zero to hundreds of millions of dollars per year. I predict that number will exceed $2B per annum by 2025, and quickly grow to tens of billions by the middle of next decade. Why does that matter? Because it will mark an important turning point, where humans began to use technology to change the limits to longevity that biology has imposed upon us.
Governance Innovations: One of MacAskill’s main arguments at “What We Owe the Future” (also listed below) is that we live at a time of ‘plasticity’, where there are multiple visions for a good society, which is a good thing – it’s an opportunity to evolve and develop. However, most of our governance mechanisms are archaic and not plastic enough to support these emerging visions. The past years, mostly because of the rise of crypto both as a technology and a philosophy, we have witnessed some really interesting examples of governance innovation. Quadratic voting, bicameralism on chain, network states, DAOs, machine learning real-time crowdsourcing policy input like Pol.is, ranked-choice voting are just some examples. We need more.
💭 TWEETS I AM THINKING ABOUT A LOT
💵 FAVORITE PAID SUBSCRIPTIONS
Common Cog: meta studies on business decision making and strategic thinking. Hidden gem!
Stratechery: if you work in tech, then you need to subscribe to Ben Thompson’s newsletter. Simple as that!
Messari: my compass to better navigate the crazy world of crypto.
Noahpinion: Politics, Culture, Technology, Philosophy. All in one by Noah Smith.
Slow Boring: American politics and policymaking by Matthew Yglesias.
📩FAVORITE BLOGS
Power-Sharing Liberalism: technically, this is a blogpost, not a blog, but I have included it in this list because it was the essay that helped me shape and evolve my political beliefs. It’s written by Danielle Allen and this is a thread with my topline thoughts about it. When people ask me where I do politically stand, I am usually referring them to this manifesto.
Astral Codex Ten: still, after so many years, one of the most insightful and thought provoking blogs out there.
Bismarck Brief: 2022 was a year of big geopolitical changes. Samo Burja does a great job explaining the motives behind key players and connecting the dots of the world map. The subscription costs a lot but it’s definitely worth it. Bonus: Burja is a savage on Twitter.
The Diff: Finance + Tech + Books + Longreads. What’s not to love?
Cabinet of Wonders: If you are into progress studies (which, by the way, you should) Samuel Arbesman is excellent.
The Generalist: WSJ Business Reports and HBS case studies but for millennials.
🗞FAVORITE MAGAZINES
Noema Magazine: Trying to find “noema” in the 21st century
Palladium: Find a better tagline than “Governance Futurism”. I will wait!
Asterisk: Brand-new and excellent.
Works In Progress: Side project of Stripe
🔊FAVORITE PODCASTS
Michael Levin at Lex Fridman: Biology, Life, Aliens, Evolution, Embryogenesis & Xenobots. Eye-opening!
Ken Burns at Tyler Cowen: Two of my favorite thinkers in a 60min conversation. Bonus: Burns’ latest projects are really good. I highly recommend both the documentary about Benjamin Franklin and the photobook “Our America”.
Erik Hoel at Sam Harris: I have been following Hoel for 3 years now and I am very happy to see him gaining the recognition he deserves. His blog is excellent as well. In this particular interview, he provides some really convincing arguments contra Effective Altruism.
Byrne Hobart at Lunar Society: A ping-pong of mind crunches and cultural deep dives. Especially interesting remarks on credentialism.
Myself at Work in Fintech: Short interview on how to enter Web3 without a CS degree, the difference between marketing and GTM and the morality of centralization. #shamelessselfpromo
📚FAVORITE BOOKS
Proof of Stake: The Making of Ethereum and the Philosophy of Blockchains: Vitalik Buterin is a fascinating thinker and philosopher. This is a collection of curated essays showing how his philosophy has evolved and matured the past 15 years and why the future of Ethereum is bright.
Aneantir: This book is “peak Houellebecq” having left behind his anti-woke obsession. I read it in Greek and it seems that the English translation isn’t published yet.
What We Owe The Future: If you think, as I do, that books should challenge our thinking and beliefs then MacAskill did a great job pushing my mind to the edge. I am still not convinced by longtermism’s underlying theory but I have recalibrated some of my arguments. This is my review-thread. Bonus: I find it unfair and immoral to blame Effective Altruism for SBF’s behavior.
The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity: Interesting and polarizing throughout. Even its “weak” parts are really good. It was promoted as “anti-Hararian” but it’s much deeper than that and makes you reconsider things you thought as universal truths. Hoel’s review is a must-read. Bonus: I became a fan of Kondiaronk after reading it.
Status and Culture: How Our Desire for Social Rank Creates Taste, Identity, Art, Fashion, and Constant Change: The title is self-descriptive of the book and I am confident it will soon become highly influential. Marx’s earlier book “Ametora” is a hidden gem. Also recommended.
The Man Who Understood Democracy, The Life of Alexis de Tocqueville: It will make you admire Tocqueville even more. I also found it pro-decentralization but maybe I am biased.
The Nineties: I am a huge Klosterman fan but this is probably his most insightful book so far. Favorite quote: "Generation X is, by almost any barometer, the least significant of the canonical demographics. Yet one accolade can be applied with conviction: Among the generations that have yet to go extinct, Generation X remains the least annoying.”
Imagine a City: A Pilot's Journey Across the Urban World: Most travel writing is mediocre and boring but Vanhoenacker is excellent. Read it on a plane if possible.
2034, A Novel of the Next World War: It is so well written that it doesn’t read like sci-fi. It feels like it’s journalistic longread about WW3 and this is the scariest part of it.
The Hurting Kind: I decided to buy and read more poetry in 2022 (mostly because I was inspired by the amazing Elliott Bay bookstore in downtown Seattle). I am happy someone recommended me Ada Limon.
📣FAVORITE QUOTE
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." Theodore Roosevelt
📸FAVORITE PHOTO
This landscape of “mountains” and “valleys” speckled with glittering stars is actually the edge of a nearby, young, star-forming region called NGC 3324 in the Carina Nebula. Captured in infrared light by NASA’s new James Webb Space Telescope, this image reveals for the first time previously invisible areas of star birth.